Antivirus XP 2008 Virus

So this is off topic, but hopefully someone will find it useful, or I may need it again to remember how I fixed it before.

Anway, a virus got installed on my machine. It basically installed an application called Antivirus XP 2008. I was able to manually delete the files that it installed and remove it from the start menu and desktop.

But this darn thing also installed itself in my \windows\System32 directory. I was able to notice the suspect file by looking at the files by date and I noticed a few that were created when I got the virus:
lanmanwrk.exe
KernelDrv.exe
kcopt.dll
Dll.dll
ikhcore.cfg
ksvcl.dll

Also I noticed a driver file (Winlt17.sys) that was in the \windows\System32\Drivers director

Some of the files in the System32 directory I could delete but I could not delete some of them nor could I delete the driver file (Winlt17.sys). Even in safe mode, Windows would load it upon startup and so the file would be locked. I kept getting warnings of applications trying to access dll.dll from my spyware application. I could also never delete the registry settings that pointed to the Winlt17.sys file. I was able to delete the other registry settings to the other files, but after a few minutes they would appear back in the registry.

Finally after trying many options, I found a very useful site: http://www.slax.org/

They provide a bootable Linux CD that I used to boot my PC. Then from Linux, I went to my hard drive and manually deleted the files. Then when I booted into Windows, I was able to delete the registry settings that pertained to those files.

Now I am no longer getting any warnings from my spyware, nor are there any files appearing in the System32 or System32/Drivers directory.

Another thing that was done to my machine was that my screen saver tab was missing. The Antivirus XP 2008 software replaced the background with its image and disabled the Screen Saver tab. I found out that I needed to change the registry setting:

[HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Policies\System]
"NoDispScrSavPage"=dword:00000000

I spent much time on this, and so I hope this helps someone else.

BTW, the application "Antivirus XP 2008" links to a site. When I did a whois on that site, it shows an address of someplace in Russia. If I ever visit Russia, I will definately make a visit there.

AMD Leaps

I have tried an approach, where instead of buying the underlying stock, I instead buy the leaps. Then each month, sell the calls and get a greater % return. I did this with AMD, but things have not worked out so well. Here is my record so far:

20080310 - Buy 201001 $5 @ 3.29

20080424 - Sell 200807 $5 @ 0.28
20080821 - Sell 200810 $5 @ 0.30
20090512 - Sell 200907 $4 @ 0.89

Current leap cost: 3.29 - 1.47 = 1.82

Current leap value (20090512) $1.00
So I am losing $.82 or -26% (ouch)

Track Record

Keeping track of things is getting a bit messy so here's my first attempt:

PCX - 142.53
July 125 - 8.40 - .75 = 7.65
Aug 125 - 8.70
(Current break even at 126.21)

DRYS - 84.25
Jul 90 - 5.50 - 0 = 0
Aug 85 - 3
(Current break even at 75.75)

HANS Pummeling

What a beating! I broke my rules and now paying for them. I bought HANS because they were fetching 9% returns on the month out calls. I got even greedier by holding this stock hoping I could sell the calls higher on any price movement up. Of course the stock tanks and now I am stuck with it. Well, now my strategy is to simply keep selling calls until I can average my loss down to $0 (Provided the stock stays relatively flat or goes up). So heres the breakdown of events:

2008-06-24 Buy HANS @ 32.41
2008-06-26 Sell July $30 Calls .90
2008-07-22 Sell Aug $30 Calls .95
2008-08-18 Sell Sep $30 Calls 2.30

Current break even price: 28.26

Notes: As soon as my break even price drops below 30, I will be selling the $25 calls (unless I get greedy again)!

June Results

RIG 158.15 - 155 - 9.10 = 5.7%
DRYS 92.50 - 90 - 11.00 = 11%
AMAT 19.75 - 20 - .80 = 5.3%
POT 202.98 - 200 - 15.50 = 6.2%

Roth IRA

I have a Roth IRA that I am doing nothing with. It has only $1164 and it is difficult to get motivated to play with this account.

But this money has done nothing for a long time and it is a good place for me to try out this options strategy. My goal for this account for this year is to make $1469 ($305, 26%). I will play with 2 month out options hoping to make 6% every 2 months compounded bimonthly. I will update this particular post with my trades to show how I am doing. This account is even harder for me to make good returns as the commissions on such small trades take a large % of my profits. But I want to prove this to myself.

2008-04-30 Sold 2 AMD June Puts for $.40 – I should make $80 provided AMD does not drop below 6, and should not lose money provided AMD does not drop below $5.60
2008-05-16 Bought 2 AMD June Puts for $.07 - I was planning on waiting till these expired in June but they dropped so much so quickly that making .07 ($14, 1%) more for another month did not make sense. So I made $66 - $16(commissions) = $50,4.3% in 2 weeks
2008-05-20 Bought 100 AMD for $7.16 - I was planning on immediately selling the call, but I got greedy hoping the stock would go up, and then it dropped, so now Im stuck holding the stock
2008-06-05 Sold 1 AMD June Call for $.80 (Jul 7) - Hopefully I can make $64 here
2008-07-01 Sold 1 AMD July Put for $.55 (Jul 6) - make $110
2008-07-21 Buy 100 AMD for $6.00 - A result of an assigned Put that I did not want
2008-08-21 Sold 2 AMD Oct Call for .60 - make $120
2009-05-12 Sold 2 AMD June Call for .30 - make $60
2009-09-15 Sold 2 AMD Oct Call for .37 - make $74
2009-11-19 Sold 200 AMD for 6.79 - make $42
2010-02-10 Buy 100 ITMN for 15.60 - lose $310
2010-02-10 Sold 1 ITMN Mar Call for 5.90 - make $590 (actually $280 due to above)
2010-05-22 Exp STEC Call for .43 - make $34

2010-08-23 Exp STEC Call for 1.45 - make $137

Current Value: $2006; Current Gain: 2.2%; Goal: $1469; Needed: $26

My POT experience

So I was looking for a good options play and I discovered Potash (POT). Its a fertalizer company that has been running up like mad. I bought it at 198 and immediately sold the next out 195 calls for $15. I was hoping to be called out on these for a $12 dollar profit or 6%. But first the thing takes off to 210 and Im thinking I got the Midas touch, but then it tanks to 180 so what to do now:

If the stock closed like this on expiration day, I would lose 3 dollars (198-15-180).

The call was now trading at $5 which if I had bought back would bring my average price of the stock down to 188, and the 180 calls were selling for $8. I could do this and safely get out of the stock with nothing. Or I could sell the 185 calls for $10 and hope to make $7 or 3.5%.

So what did do... Nothing as I did not plan for this and things happened quickly. Now the stock is trading at 184 which is fine with me.

Actually I really like the premiums on this stock, and so if they do not get called that is preferred as I can sell the next month out calls and hopefully make another 7%. But this strategy relies on the fact that POT must stay at this range and not drop much further. Because if it drops, my loss will be larger then these gains and I will end up with a net loss.

But the wild swings on this stock explain the nice premiums the options are getting.

Lets see how this turns out.

10% just like that (actually %6.5)!

So my stragety of buying leaps and selling the short term calls on AMD is not working out correctly. The problem for me is that I did not have a plan as to which calls I should sell, as I did not want to get called out and lose any money.

The safer approach would be to by the shares outright and then sell the calls. But my returns (%) would be much lower and would require much more cash.

But that is the safer approach and one that I am more familiar with, so that is the way I should try this approach, and then move to holding leaps instead of the asset.

I just tried this with DRYS. This stock is very volatile and that is what is needed to get the premiums to make a good return. I 100 shares at $62.5 and immediately sold 1 $60 April call for $6.50. That means I recieved $650 for a &6200 investment. 10% right off the bat. If the stocks stays above $60, I will be forced to sell my shares at $60 (a $2.50 loss resulting in a net gain of $400) resulting in a %6.5 gain. That is not bad for 1 month.

If the stock drops below $60, then I keep the shares and the money from the call, and I reduce my purchase price of the stock by $6.50 to $56.50. So as long as the stock does not fall below 56.50 by April 18th I should make money anywhere from %0-%6.5

Dorfman revisted

Its been a while since I posted. Much has happened, and I've been very busy. I consider myself very lucky, as I had been eying BearStearns for a while now, but luckily I did not get in. Wow, the 5th largest investment company in the US is basically insolvent. We are in a lot of trouble.

From what I understand, they have been in a 1:30 margin with their bets on these mortgages. Now all that money is gone, and so it appears is the company.

I wonder if my accounts at my brokerages are in trouble. I will have to look into that.

Anyway, Dorfman was big on BSC and he must have gotten killed on it. But he is back with a new set of picks, and I wanted to note them to see how they do:

CMC - Commercial Metals
OSG - Overseas Shipholding Group
AZN - Astrazeneca
COLM - Columbia Sportswear
DVN - Devon Energy
GS -Goldman Sachs
MTN(short) - Vail Resorts

Dorfman picks

I really like the analyst John Dorfman who used to write on Bloomberg before creating his own investment company. I found the following info from him regarding some picks on Sept 5, 2007:

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- John Dorfman, chief investment officer at Thunderstorm Capital, talked with Bloomberg's Pimm Fox yesterday from Boston about the performance of Bear Stearns Cos. and his recommendation of Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc., Encore Wire Corp., and St. Mary Land & Exploration Co. (Source: Bloomberg)


On 9/5/2007 - today - gain:
BSC: 108.95 - 74.21 - 32%
WIRE: 26.34 - 15.84 - 40%
SCHN: 60.38 - 56.13 - 7%
SM: 34.53 - 37.53 - 8%


Wow! Seems as though my analyst is a very bad pick. Nonetheless, he picks stocks with strong cash flow, consistent earnings, and those that have been hit for reasons that they should have been. Seems like he picked these a little early. In any case, I want to go over these stocks and perhaps enter into them on any movement up.

Follow your rules!!!!

Its truly amazing how things can change in a week. The market has tanked and we are now in a bear market.

I was clearly given many opportunities this week to get out of many of my positions will a small loss and even some gain. But my fear, greed, and uncertainty caused me to break my rules and give up much of my profits that I had made last year.

I will be putting in very tight stops, and will most probably be stopped out of many 0f my positions with a loss for this year, but its a lesson I must accept. Too many times I have broken my rules and as a result given back quickly what it took me a much longer to make.

It is because I feel like I cannot make mistakes, especially after a good run, and it always takes a good kick in the butt, like this, to get me back on track. But this is an expensive lesson to learn and obviously I have not learned it as I have repeated my mistakes.

So, for this year, I will be trading heavily, but after each executed trade I will enter at least a 5% stop, and I will not add to my position at a lower price than my purchase price (or average purchase price).

I WILL follow for this year, if for no other reason, then to see if it does indeed help me out.

For the way I trade, and my emotions on the market, I feel bad when I leave money on the table. But I feel real bad, when I lose money that I have made.