Wednesday, April 30, 2008

My POT experience

So I was looking for a good options play and I discovered Potash (POT). Its a fertalizer company that has been running up like mad. I bought it at 198 and immediately sold the next out 195 calls for $15. I was hoping to be called out on these for a $12 dollar profit or 6%. But first the thing takes off to 210 and Im thinking I got the Midas touch, but then it tanks to 180 so what to do now:

If the stock closed like this on expiration day, I would lose 3 dollars (198-15-180).

The call was now trading at $5 which if I had bought back would bring my average price of the stock down to 188, and the 180 calls were selling for $8. I could do this and safely get out of the stock with nothing. Or I could sell the 185 calls for $10 and hope to make $7 or 3.5%.

So what did do... Nothing as I did not plan for this and things happened quickly. Now the stock is trading at 184 which is fine with me.

Actually I really like the premiums on this stock, and so if they do not get called that is preferred as I can sell the next month out calls and hopefully make another 7%. But this strategy relies on the fact that POT must stay at this range and not drop much further. Because if it drops, my loss will be larger then these gains and I will end up with a net loss.

But the wild swings on this stock explain the nice premiums the options are getting.

Lets see how this turns out.

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